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Updated March 12, 2020 09:07:38
If you're panicking over your shares right now, that could potentially be the worst thing to do.
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Sure, it's been a rollercoaster week in markets, with sharp falls due to the impact of the coronavirus on the economy and an oil price war.
It's truly gut-wrenching to see thousands wiped off your investments or your super.
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But is now the time to sell or are there actually some opportunities to buy?
We asked the experts.
The independent financial adviser
'The first thing to say is it's really, really natural to feel nervous and afraid. It's really normal,' independent financial adviser Kate McCallum explained.
But she warned against making any big decisions when the market is going up and down quickly.
'Selling when the market's in this type of tumult where it's had a dip, it means you actually convert your money into cash or a more conservative instrument. You actually lose the value. You actually make it real,' she said.
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'We often talk about paper losses. If you don't sell it, the investment is still sitting there waiting to have future capital growth and if you don't need the money right away, then you're better off just staying the course.
'If you're trying to apply rationality to investing in shares it'll trip you up because, fundamentally, emotion is driving a lot of what's going on at the moment.'
Remember your long-term goals associated with investing, she urges. If you've set up a diversified portfolio, you should be OK.
'If you're an investor, you shouldn't be in shares unless you've got a time horizon for that money to be away doing its work and investing for at least seven to 10 years,' she said.
'If you're trading, then actually you're speculating and it's a very, very different beast.'
Ms McCallum says there will be buying opportunities when the market dips, and one way to do so conservatively is to drip-feed money in by making purchases over several months.
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'It just helps you sleep better at night. It means if shares do fall further, you bought some at a reasonable price, but you might get some at a better price … it's not a guaranteed better return, but it makes you feel more comfortable,' she said.
She also says it's near-impossible to accurately predict when shares will be at their cheapest.
'You've heard the old adage, it's not timing the market, it's time in the market. And at times like these, it's really important to remember that. What that is really about is reminding us it's impossible to know when the bottom of the market is,' she said.
But she says history shows the markets do recover from shocks like this, such as the global financial crisis of 2008.
'It's about stepping back and saying, if I look at history, I can see the share market over the long run. It trends upwards and that is exactly what we anticipate what it will continue to do,' she said.
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The investment strategist
Right now, we're seeing panic-selling in what was already an overvalued market, says Fiona Clark from Merricks Capital.
'Part of what we're seeing now is just bringing things back to normal valuations, and then part of that is just the selling for the sake of selling because we don't know where the bottom is and we don't want to be caught holding shares,' she said.
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And it's all exaggerated by automated trading.
'At the moment, this volatility is exaggerated by the algorithm, computer-related trading, which just makes everything seem so much more scarier,' she said.
'That in itself means people don't want to be involved and they're prepared to stay on the sidelines. So, we need a little stability to come back in before those people on the sidelines feel more comfortable about stepping in.'
She recommends thinking hard about whether you have the right mix of investments.
'I would be doing a bit of everything,' she said.
'Selling things you're concerned about that might be overvalued, and holding some of the more stable companies that potentially might benefit from the turmoil we're seeing in the market and impact on growth the coronavirus might have.'
She says to find the best opportunities to buy, it's worth thinking about the big trends and how coronavirus may impact our lives.
'We're going to buy more things online, we're going to go out less often, spend more time on the internet, and we're going to be less socially active, doing less big things and more intimate gatherings,' she suggested.
'It's then about positioning your portfolio to those sorts of things, so that's why travel companies might not be a good place to be for now.
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'People still have to have holidays, but more local providers will do better. It will be about thinking about how this changes our behaviour and spending behaviour — clearly manufacturers of toilet paper and rice and all the rest of it are doing well at the moment.
'I probably wouldn't be buying anything right at this stage because I think there might be a little bit more weakness and certainly more volatility ahead.'
She thinks selling will continue until the virus becomes more stable.
'That will be when things start moving ahead, within three to six months, assuming the best-case scenario if the virus is contained, the number of new cases becomes stabilised, the mortality rate is stable and supply continues,' she said.
'We will see the economy recover and then shares will stabilise and potentially increase. But we're not nearing that now, things are still deteriorating.
'Nobody knows, that's the problem. The experts don't know. That's why I wouldn't be buying, I wouldn't be panic selling either unless it helps you sleep at night. If it helps you sleep at night, then sell.'
The fund manager
Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investment Management is actively looking for opportunities to buy.
'The important thing is not to time it, but to price it, that's the difference,' he said.
'Women are having nightmares about their retirement'
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'Looking at what companies are worth and asking yourself, is it trading now below that estimate of what it's valued? And then thinking about buying.'
He warns now is not the time to panic-sell.
'If you did that at the bottom of the GFC, which is when most people capitulated, they missed out on essentially a tripling of prices in the market after the GFC,' he said.
'That's precisely the worst thing to do, panic doesn't help. It's really important to remain level-headed and focus on value.'
He says there are two groups of companies to consider: those directly affected by the pandemic and those impacted by the panic.
'Think companies in Australia like Flight Centre, Webjet, Qantas, Sydney Airport — they're going to have real exposure to the direct consequences or the first-order consequences of coronavirus,' he said.
'That category of businesses might become really cheap and while they are impacted by the virus and the outbreak, the share price could overreact dramatically.
'If that happens, they could be really good value and you might want to buy them.
'The next group of companies are those that are potentially going to be less impacted by the virus, but sometimes the shares will overreact and consequently provide opportunities.'
But he's holding off buying just now.
'It's really important to sharpen your pencil at the moment, be ready to invest,' he said.
'It's important to look for value when it presents itself. At the same time, there's probably no rush because this has got a little bit of time to play out yet.'
This article contains general information only. It should not be relied on as financial advice.
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Topics:consumer-finance, business-economics-and-finance, stockmarket, markets, australia
First posted March 12, 2020 08:28:00